{"id":164891,"date":"2013-01-01T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2013-01-01T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/new-cm-edgedigital.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/msr-research-item\/biophysical-suitability-economic-pressure-and-land-cover-change-a-global-probabilistic-approach-and-insights-for-redd\/"},"modified":"2018-10-16T20:11:57","modified_gmt":"2018-10-17T03:11:57","slug":"biophysical-suitability-economic-pressure-and-land-cover-change-a-global-probabilistic-approach-and-insights-for-redd","status":"publish","type":"msr-research-item","link":"https:\/\/new-cm-edgedigital.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/publication\/biophysical-suitability-economic-pressure-and-land-cover-change-a-global-probabilistic-approach-and-insights-for-redd\/","title":{"rendered":"Biophysical suitability, economic pressure and land-cover change: a global probabilistic approach and insights for REDD+"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>There has been a concerted effort by the international scientific community to understand the multiple causes and patterns of land-cover change to support sustainable land management. Here, we examined biophysical suitability, and a novel integrated index of \u201cEconomic Pressure on Land\u201d (EPL) to explain land cover in the year 2000, and estimated the likelihood of future land-cover change through 2050, including protected area effectiveness. Biophysical suitability and EPL explained almost half of the global pattern of land cover (<em class=\"EmphasisTypeItalic \">R<\/em> <sup>2<\/sup>\u00a0=\u00a00.45), increasing to almost two-thirds in areas where a long-term equilibrium is likely to have been reached (e.g. <em class=\"EmphasisTypeItalic \">R<\/em> <sup>2<\/sup>\u00a0=\u00a00.64 in Europe). We identify a high likelihood of future land-cover change in vast areas with relatively lower current and past deforestation (e.g. the Congo Basin). Further, we simulated emissions arising from a \u201cbusiness as usual\u201d and two reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) scenarios by incorporating data on biomass carbon. As our model incorporates all biome types, it highlights a crucial aspect of the ongoing REDD\u00a0+\u00a0debate: if restricted to forests, \u201ccross-biome leakage\u201d would severely reduce REDD\u00a0+\u00a0effectiveness for climate change mitigation. If forests were protected from deforestation yet without measures to tackle the drivers of land-cover change, REDD\u00a0+\u00a0would only reduce 30\u00a0% of total emissions from land-cover change. Fifty-five percent of emissions reductions from forests would be compensated by increased emissions in other biomes. These results suggest that, although REDD\u00a0+\u00a0remains a very promising mitigation tool, implementation of complementary measures to reduce land demand is necessary to prevent this leakage.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There has been a concerted effort by the international scientific community to understand the multiple causes and patterns of land-cover change to support sustainable land management. Here, we examined biophysical suitability, and a novel integrated index of \u201cEconomic Pressure on Land\u201d (EPL) to explain land cover in the year 2000, and estimated the likelihood of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"msr-url-field":"","msr-podcast-episode":"","msrModifiedDate":"","msrModifiedDateEnabled":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_classifai_error":"","msr-author-ordering":null,"msr_publishername":"Springer Japan","msr_publisher_other":"","msr_booktitle":"","msr_chapter":"","msr_edition":"Sustainability Science","msr_editors":"","msr_how_published":"","msr_isbn":"","msr_issue":"","msr_journal":"Sustainability 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